What does Lula’s victory mean for cryptocurrencies in Brazil?
Less than 24 hours after the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the dispute for the Presidency of Brazil, the cryptocurrency market is already wondering this Monday (31) as the new administration of the country – which takes over on the 1st of January — will look at the Brazilian digital currency sector.
One of the analyzes made by the market is that Lula may have a strong ally with a favorable view of the crypto asset market: Henrique Meirelles. In September, the former finance minister and former president of the Central Bank took up one of the advisory board seats of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance.
Another highlight also involves the Legislature: the so-called Cryptocurrency Law. Bill 4,401/2021, which creates a legal framework for the sector, is ready to be discussed in the Chamber of Deputies. After the vote, to become law, the president will need to sanction the text – something that will force Lula and cryptocurrencies to cross at some point, if approval comes after PT takes office.
O Bitcoin Portal talked to experts to find out if it is possible to make any predictions and what expectations are being created.
See the expert analysis below:
Bruno Diniz, founding partner of the Spiralem consultancy
“A lot depends on who will be part of the economic team. In case it is the [Henrique] Meirelles, he had already publicly spoken out in favor of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In fact, he is currently an advisor to Binance, a position that I imagine he will have to resign if he occupies any agenda related to the economy.
We will also see what the position of the next government will be in relation to topics such as Bitcoin mining. This is a subject that has been heavily attacked when viewed from the environmental point of view and may, at first, have some clash with the vision of those who will occupy the agenda related to the environment, especially if there are preconceptions and contrary understandings. ”
Marcelo Bueno, head of legal at Bitblue
“Within our vision, we understand that the most important event for cryptocurrencies in Brazil continues to be the approval of the regulatory framework, which today depends much more on the Legislature than on the Executive.
Cryptocurrencies were born to be decentralized and independent of governments, but we do not deny that macroeconomic circumstances have an influence on the market, especially from the moment this market becomes institutionalized, with the highest volume of transactions occurring via exchanges.
In this sense, we hope that the next Government will position itself to collaborate and encourage national companies to take advantage of opportunities, to compete with foreign exchanges on equal terms and to assume a leadership role in this still new cryptocurrency market. ”
Julien Dutra, director of the Bitcoin Market
“In our understanding, the election result should cause little change in the crypto-economy scenario in Brazil, since both the CVM and the Central Bank have autonomy and also adopt four-year terms for the president and directors of the federal autarchy, without coincide with the cycles of the administration of the President of the Republic.
Our expectation is that we will make significant progress even during Roberto Campos Neto’s term. (in BC)who has been a big fan of the crypto world as a whole, especially tokenization, and has already signaled that he does not want to have a new mandate.
The regulation is still pending in Congress and with it we have reduced the systemic risks against fraud and money laundering, as well as offering a greater guarantee to investors. And that is also beneficial to the market.”
Luiz Pedro Andrade, crypto asset analyst at Nord Research
“In practice it is very difficult to define what changes for cryptocurrencies. The advancement of regulatory frameworks, in their current stages, is little influenced by the change in the Executive.
But from an investor’s point of view, it’s a very interesting time to start buying crypto. Better to start with Bitcoin and Ethereum, then look to diversify more. They are uncorrelated assets of Brazilian politics and economy, dollarized and that give you real ownership over your money.
It has never been so important for Brazilians to have crypto assets in their investments.”