is entering a new “speculation cycle” typical of a bull run, new analysis says.
In a tweet on May 16, Philip Swift, creator of data resource LookIntoBitcoin and co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, revealed history repeating itself according to the RHODL Ratio metric.
RHODL Ratiocreator on BTC price: “Zoom out”
RHODL Ratio is a method of tracking BTC price behavior based on the realized price of the supply — the price at which coins last moved.
Created by Swift in 2020, it compares the relative ages of coins that moved one week ago to those which moved one to two years ago.
This ratio gives an insight into the relative activity of short-term (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs) and, by extension, the extent to which speculation is present on the market.
Currently, RHODL is bouncing higher, having hit its green accumulation zone at the end of 2022.
At the time, Swift told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin was “at the point of maximum opportunity” — something which has since proven true, with BTC/USD gaining 70% in Q1 2023.
Prior to that, its descent toward that point had coincided with Bitcoin’s own retreat to macro lows.
Now, with speculative activity seemingly increasing, he believes that a new bull cycle is already underway.
“When I created the bitcoin RHODL Ratio indicator in 2020, one thing that struck me was how it showed a new bull run forming…when the ratio value of younger coins began to increase. Which is where we are right now,” he commented.
“Don’t panic about small price pullbacks. Zoom out.”
Bitcoin RHODL Ratio annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/Twitter
Swift is not alone in his conviction. Responding, Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, called RHODL Ratio “one of the greatest onchain finds.”
An accompanying chart, meanwhile, added that the 2021 bull market, despite delivering a blow-off top for BTC/USD, did not see a copycat move for RHODL. The last time the metric hit its red “high speculation” zone was at Bitcoin’s prior all-time high in late 2017.
Bitcoin RHODL Ratio chart (screenshot). Source: LookIntoBitcoin
Fear, depression and lack of interest
Continuing, Swift argued that on short timeframes, market participants remain risk-off on crypto markets.
Related: Watch these BTC price levels as Bitcoin threatens to lose $27K support
The conclusion followed a scan of funding rates on exchanges, with a slew of “bearish” ratings for Bitcoin generated by DecenTrader. These concerned open interest and long/short ratio in addition to funding rates themselves.
Market data for various major cryptocurrencies (screenshot). Source: DecenTrader
“Market is still fearful/depressed/uninterested…” he summarized on the day.
Earlier this month, Swift gave Cointelegraph an updated forecast on what might happen to Bitcoin in the final year before its next block subsidy halving. Among other eventualities, a return to $20,000 is not out of the question.