Bitcoin (BTC $30,365) may see a “market correction” should BTC price action go much beyond $33,000, research warns.
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, The Week On-Chain, analytics firm Glassnode flagged speculative selling risk on the horizon.
Bitcoin speculator profits average 12%
Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) — the more speculative BTC investors — have returned to the spotlight this year.
Recently, their aggregate cost basis appeared to form wider BTC price support near $26,000. For Glassnode, which observed the cost basis’ significance in recent weeks, the opposite effect could soon appear.
As part of its coverage of short-term and long-term holder (LTH) activity, researchers highlighted levels at which speculators should take profit en masse.
It used the market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, which divides the spot value of coins versus the price at which they last moved. The resulting number, which forms a measure of profitability or loss, fluctuates around one, corresponding to a “breakeven” price.
“We can also see a strong reaction in the Short-Term Holder MVRV indicator, reacting strongly off the break-even level of MVRV = 1,” “The Week On-Chain” explains.
This ratio is currently at 1.12, suggesting that, on average, the short-term holder cohort is sitting on a 12% profit.
Should BTC price continue to make gains, STH-MVRV will rise with it, and once it passes 1.2, the danger of profit-taking historically becomes real.
“The risk of market corrections tend to rise when this metric exceeds levels of between 1.2 (~$33.2k) and 1.4 (~$38.7k), as investors come into increasingly large unrealized profits,” Glassnode added.
Bitcoin short-term holder MVRV chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
$25,000 represents “seller exhaustion”
Further data reinforces the idea that the recent lows near $25,000 flushed out those looking to sell.
The spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which looks at the relative profitability of BTC moving on-chain, has repeatedly shown what Glassnode calls “exhaustion” among sellers at or near that level.
Exhaustion levels have been climbing since the end of 2022, following Bitcoin’s current multiyear lows in the wake of the FTX exchange debacle.
“On multiple occasions in recent weeks, we can identify spot seller exhaustion taking place below the lower band including the final low set at $25.1k before the recovery back above $30k,” Glassnode summarized alongside a corresponding chart.
Bitcoin spent output profit ratio (SOPR) data (screenshot). Source: Glassnode