Bitcoin has reached the point where the price action direction for the next few months could well be decided.
Super Low Volatility
Bitcoin is either on the brink of the cliff, or it is on the launchpad. Most analysts appear to be going with the cliff theory, given that bitcoin has not been able to break through the huge resistance at $31,000, which it has been trying to do since March of this year.
Volatility is incredibly low. Bollinger bands are as tight as they’ve ever been and something has to give. As the bands tighten further around bitcoin it has the effect as though someone is squeezing a bar of wet soap with more and more force until it suddenly bursts out like a projectile.
The Current State Of Play
To describe the scene, bitcoin is sitting on very strong support at around $29,200. On the daily timeframe it is also resting on the 50-day moving average. Below, currently at about $27,000, is the upwards trendline which defines this bull market, and just below that is the last bastion of defence in the 200-day moving average.
It must be said that if bitcoin were to fall through the entirety of all this support, what we all thought was the start of the next bull market may turn into the most deceiving bear market rally.
A Bearish Short Term?
Likely bearish news is due as soon as later today. The Federal Reserve is in the midst of its latest FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will make an interest rate announcement, that is very widely expected to be another 25 basis point rise to the upside.
Of course, the market has already priced this in, as well as the other possible quarter point rise that the Fed has said it wants to make before the end of the year. Be that as it may, there is bound to be a lot of volatility around the time of the announcement, and also afterwards when Powell may make some hawkish utterances in order to further quell the market.
When all is said and done bitcoin does appear to be demonstrating much weaker price action and the widely expected plummet to the downside could certainly take place. However, the bull market trendline and the 200-day moving average are both waiting below so look for bitcoin to make a strong bounce from these supports.
Bullish Medium Term
Looking further ahead, this bull market trendline is converging with the $31,000 resistance, thereby forming an ascending triangle. As price action funnels towards the culmination of this bullish chart pattern, expect another explosion, and this time towards the upside.
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