Fundstrat Global Advisors’ managing partner Tom Lee is predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) could hit six figures before the halvening scheduled for 2024.
Lee says in a research note that the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could trigger BTC to rally to between $140,000 and $180,000 before next year in April.
Such a move would represent an increase of between 380% and 516% from the current levels.
The Fundstrat managing partner says his prediction is based on the thesis by Fundstrat’s head of crypto strategy Sean Farrell that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would increase the daily demand for Bitcoin five-fold.
“Current bitcoin market is in balance with $25 million in daily block rewards and $25 million in daily demand.
INCREMENTAL ETF DEMAND: Sean [Farrell] believes $25 billion of demand is possible in the first year. This is $100 million in daily demand.
This would bring daily demand to $125 million, while daily supply is only $25 million. The implied equilibrium price would need to rise so daily supply matches daily demand. Equilibrium analysis suggests that a clearing price is $140,000 to $180,000, before the April 2024 halvening.
Generally, this idea of higher equilibrium price is consistent. Sean Farrell estimates of flow multiplier for Bitcoin of 4X-5X.”
On the odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF finally getting approved in the US after numerous rejections in the past, Lee says,
“Bitcoin ETF could finally get approved. Sean Farrell sees the ‘BlackRock effect’ making this far more likely today.”
BlackRock, the world’s largest investment firm by assets under management, filed a spot Bitcoin ETF application last month.
Bitcoin is trading at $29,191 at time of writing.
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