Bitcoin (BTC) shows signs of breaking into a prolonged bullish phase despite mixed signals across global markets, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. The cryptocurrency recently tested $83,200 amid fluctuating risk appetite, as investors weigh escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and surging Treasury yields.
Policy Shifts Could Fuel BTC Momentum
Hayes highlighted the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield’s climb above 4.5% as a critical catalyst, arguing that policymakers may soon intervene to stabilize markets. “A coordinated response could emerge as early as this weekend,” he noted on social media, suggesting such action might propel Bitcoin into an “up-only” trajectory.
This outlook aligns with Hayes’ earlier predictions, including a 2025 Bitcoin price target of $250,000 tied to monetary easing trends 1. His analysis dovetails with growing institutional interest, as highlighted by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s recent warning of a potential U.S. recession and calls for regulatory clarity 2 3.
Trade Wars and Market Dislocations
Recent tariff escalations loom large:
• U.S. imposed 145% duties on select Chinese imports
• China retaliated with 125% tariffs on American goods
• 90-day tariff pause extends economic uncertainty
Analyst Scott Melker identified yields and China relations as primary market risks, stating: “Everything else is just details.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s 4.4% weekly gain contrasts with traditional assets’ struggles, reinforcing its perceived role as a macro hedge 2 3.
Institutional Sentiment Strengthens
BlackRock’s Fink emphasized the need for policy certainty during recent earnings commentary, reflecting Wall Street’s growing engagement with crypto markets. This institutional pivot coincides with Bitcoin’s supply dynamics—only 7.5% of its 21 million cap remains unmined, with accumulation by large holders hitting eight-month highs 4 5.
Technical Perspective
BTC currently tests resistance near $83k, with support at $80k. A sustained breakout could target its all-time high near $100k, though short-term volatility persists amid geopolitical crosscurrents 2 6.
As central banks grapple with stagflation risks, Hayes’ analysis underscores Bitcoin’s evolving role in global finance. With monetary and fiscal policies in flux, the cryptocurrency’s next moves may hinge on policymakers’ capacity to address mounting economic pressures 7 3.
Market data via Crypto.news; macroeconomic analysis incorporates Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Department reports.
