Ethereum (ETH) has recently dipped below the $1,600 mark, sparking renewed interest among crypto investors and analysts. While the short-term trend remains bearish, several on-chain and technical signals suggest that Ethereum could be entering a crucial accumulation phase—often a precursor to a market turnaround 1 2 3.
What’s Happening with Ethereum’s Price?
As of mid-April 2025, Ethereum is trading close to its realized price, currently around $1,585 4 1. Historically, this level has marked a deep-value zone where long-term holders begin to accumulate, setting the stage for major price rebounds. Every significant ETH bull run has started when the price touched or fell below this threshold 1 3.
Technical Picture: Mixed Signals
• Ethereum is trading below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong downtrend 2 1.
• The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just under 40, showing weak momentum but not yet signaling an oversold market 1.
• Bollinger Bands are compressed, reflecting low volatility and hinting that a decisive move—up or down—could be imminent 1.
If the current downtrend continues, ETH could find support in the $1,450–$1,550 range, a zone that has historically acted as a market bottom 2 1. On the upside, resistance is expected around $1,670, with stronger selling pressure near $1,930 2 1 5.
Fundamental Shifts: Layer 2 Migration and Fee Dynamics
Ethereum’s recent Dencun upgrade has dramatically increased network scalability, but at a cost: Layer 1 fee revenues have dropped as users migrate to cheaper Layer 2 solutions 1. This shift has weakened ETH’s “ultrasound money” narrative, especially as competitors like Solana and BNB Chain offer faster, lower-fee alternatives 1.
Network fees have fallen to a five-year low, averaging just $0.168 per transaction 1. While this signals reduced usage and congestion, it also historically precedes price rebounds. As Santiment notes, when retail interest fades and development remains strong, surprise rallies often follow 1.
Market Sentiment and Macro Factors
Broader macroeconomic uncertainty is also weighing on Ethereum. Traders are closely watching global economic news, often holding back on major moves until there’s more clarity 1. Despite the cautious mood, some analysts see the current environment as a classic setup for accumulation, with smart money quietly building positions at these levels 3.
What’s Next for ETH?
• If ETH holds above the realized price and key support zones, a rebound could be on the cards, especially if network activity and sentiment improve 1 3.
• However, if bearish momentum persists, further declines toward $1,450 are possible before any significant recovery 2 1.
For long-term investors, Ethereum’s fundamentals—its role in decentralized applications and ongoing network upgrades—remain strong, even as short-term volatility continues 2 3.
