Solana (SOL), one of the most talked-about cryptocurrencies, has seen a notable drop this week, falling to $154.40—a decline of 11.7% over the past seven days. This downturn comes amid broader market volatility, triggered in part by a U.S. court decision to reinstate tariffs from the Trump era, which has made investors more cautious across riskier assets, including digital currencies.
Technical Picture: Support Levels and Bearish Signals
Solana’s price action has turned negative after breaking below a key support at $165.94. The token is now trading outside the bullish channel it had maintained since mid-April. On the daily chart, a series of red candles and a “Three Black Crows” pattern signal persistent selling pressure. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $159.60, which previously acted as support, has now flipped to resistance. Momentum indicators like the MACD are deep in bearish territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 46, suggesting the market is still under pressure.
Key levels to watch:
• Support: $141.60, $125.95, $112.04
• Resistance: $176–$188
Market Sentiment: Derivatives and ETF Delays
Recent data shows a shift in sentiment among traders. Futures open interest has dropped by 3.23% to $7.11 billion, and there was a significant $18.98 million in long liquidations on Friday, compared to just $464,750 in short liquidations. This indicates that many traders betting on a price increase have been forced to exit their positions.
Adding to the cautious mood are delays in the approval of U.S. spot Solana ETFs, despite multiple applications from major firms like Fidelity and VanEck. While prediction markets put the odds of approval at 82%, and some analysts see potential for a major rally if an ETF is approved, the lack of regulatory clarity is keeping SOL below the $200 mark for now.
Long-Term Outlook: Institutional Interest and Ecosystem Growth
Despite short-term headwinds, Solana’s fundamentals remain strong. Circle recently minted $250 million in USDC on Solana, boosting liquidity and making Solana responsible for 34% of all stablecoin volume. SOL Strategies is aiming to raise $1 billion to support validator infrastructure, a sign of confidence in the network’s scalability.
Other positive developments include Coinbase launching 24/7 SOL futures trading and ARK Invest adding Solana to a Canadian ETF. These moves don’t guarantee an immediate price rebound, but they do lay the groundwork for future adoption and growth.
What’s Next for SOL?
For now, the technical outlook remains cautious. Unless Solana forms a clear reversal pattern—such as a Hammer or Morning Star with MACD convergence and a retest of the 50 EMA—the path of least resistance is still downward. New investors may want to wait for stronger signs of a turnaround, while experienced traders should look for volume confirmation before making moves.
Looking ahead, expert forecasts for 2025 vary widely. Some analysts predict a potential high of $400, while others see a more conservative range between $220 and $336, depending on market conditions and the outcome of ETF applications . If the broader crypto market recovers and regulatory hurdles are cleared, a return to $200 and beyond is possible, but for now, patience and caution are advised.
