Bitcoin is at a pivotal moment as it hovers just above the $100,000 mark, with market attention sharply focused on the $95,600 support level. Recent data shows that long-term holders—investors who have held their coins for over a year—are cashing in on significant gains, creating downward pressure on the price and testing the resilience of bullish sentiment.
Key Support Levels in Focus
After slipping below $103,700, Bitcoin’s next major support is the psychological $100,000 level, followed closely by $95,600. As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading around $101,280, down nearly 4% in the past 24 hours. Analysts highlight that if the $95,600 level fails to hold, the market could see a retest of the short-term holder cost basis at $97,100, and potentially a further drop toward $83,200, which previously acted as a strong support during the March correction .
What’s Driving the Sell-Off?
The current wave of selling is largely attributed to veteran investors who accumulated Bitcoin at much lower prices, specifically in the $25,000–$31,000 and $60,000–$73,000 ranges. Over the past week, these long-term holders have realized profits averaging $1.47 billion per day, marking one of the highest profit-taking periods of the current cycle. Notably, holders with more than 12 months of tenure are outpacing short-term traders by more than three to one in realized gains.
This pattern is typical of late-cycle market behavior, where experienced investors provide liquidity while newer market participants are left to decide whether to defend key support levels.
Market Sentiment and Technical Signals
Technical indicators are signaling caution. The daily chart shows a bearish “Three Pushes to a High” pattern, often a precursor to a trend reversal. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has dropped to an 11-month low, suggesting that traders expect less dramatic price swings in the near term. Meanwhile, open interest in CME futures and options has declined, reflecting reduced participation from institutional players .
Short-term, the $97,100 cost basis for recent buyers is a critical level. Historically, a decisive break below this threshold has led to extended drawdowns, while a rebound above it can restore bullish momentum.
What to Watch Next
• $95,600 Support: If this level holds, it could signal renewed buying interest and stabilize the market.
• $97,100 Resistance: Should Bitcoin fall below $95,600, reclaiming $97,100 will be crucial for any bullish recovery.
• $83,200 Lower Band: Failure to defend higher supports could see Bitcoin test this level, which previously cushioned the March downturn.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s price action in the coming days will be shaped by whether buyers can absorb the ongoing sell pressure from long-term holders. The $95,600 support is now the line in the sand for bulls, with a break below potentially opening the door to deeper corrections. As seasoned investors lock in profits, the market’s next move will depend on the willingness of new entrants to step in and defend these critical levels.
