The current Bitcoin bull cycle is showing markedly different characteristics compared to previous cycles, with experts describing it as “weird,” “sober,” and “unlike anything we’ve seen before.” As Bitcoin trades around $104,851 in June 2025, analysts are noting several distinct patterns that set this cycle apart from the euphoric rallies of 2017 and 2021.
A New Kind of Bitcoin Cycle
Traditional Bitcoin cycles typically follow a predictable pattern: investors accumulate Bitcoin before the halving, followed by a euphoric rally to new all-time highs, and eventually a steep crash leading to a prolonged bear market. The 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles all adhered to this script .
However, the current cycle has broken this mold. After reaching an all-time high of over $111,000 in May 2025, Bitcoin has entered a period of consolidation rather than continuing its parabolic rise or experiencing a dramatic crash.
“If there was ever a time for the four-year Bitcoin cycle to end, this is probably it,” noted industry analyst Check .
What Makes This Cycle Different?
Several key factors distinguish the current cycle:
Institutional Influence: Since their approval in January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed over 1.1 million Bitcoin—approximately 5% of the total supply that will ever exist. BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone holds over half of all Bitcoin in spot ETFs .
Artificial Pullbacks: Unlike previous cycles where corrections became less frequent as momentum built, 2024-2025 has featured alternating strong rallies followed by sharp declines over short timeframes . These patterns suggest possible intentional market control by large players.
Reduced Retail Participation: Data shows that retail transfer volumes (transactions between $0-$10,000) have decreased from $423 million to $408 million since Bitcoin hit $111,000 in May. The 30-day change in retail demand has shifted from positive to negative territory, indicating smaller investors are stepping back.
Institutional vs. Retail Dynamics
The current market appears to be primarily driven by institutional interest rather than retail enthusiasm. This “sticky, steady, and largely unsold” institutional demand, as described by Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, has smoothed out the wild swings that typically define Bitcoin bull markets .
Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy have also been consistently accumulating Bitcoin, providing additional price support. This institutional backbone represents a fundamental shift from previous cycles that were largely retail-driven.
“This is looking like a longer and more measured bitcoin cycle than priors,” noted Alex Thorn, head of research at Digital Galaxy .
What Could Happen Next?
If the current pattern of institutional control continues, this bull cycle might end differently than previous ones. Rather than a gradual fade, some analysts suggest the cycle could conclude with a sharp spike driven by euphoric buying behavior when institutional restraints eventually loosen.
For sustained momentum, consistent participation from retail investors remains crucial. The divergence between institutional and retail involvement will likely shape how the next phase of Bitcoin’s market cycle develops.
The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19, 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins . If historical patterns were to repeat, Bitcoin would reach extraordinary heights—the equivalent percentage growth from the 2017 cycle would put Bitcoin at $260,712, while matching the 2013 cycle would suggest a price of $858,286 .
However, as influential macro analyst Noelle Acheson observed, “Pretty much all of us who have been through a few of these now seem to agree that this one ‘feels’ different… More sober so far.”
