Shiba Inu (SHIB) is at a critical crossroads as a dormant whale recently moved a staggering 100 billion SHIB tokens, stirring fresh concerns about the token’s near-term price trajectory. This massive transfer, alongside other large transactions totaling over 3.6 trillion SHIB worth $43.6 million to Coinbase Institutional, signals that major holders might be repositioning or exiting, raising questions about SHIB’s support levels and market sentiment.
Whale Movements and Market Impact
The whale’s activity included sending 100.45 billion SHIB (valued at approximately $1.21 million) to Binance, while the Coinbase Institutional wallet received a colossal 3.6 trillion SHIB tokens. Such large-scale transfers often indicate strategic moves by “smart money,” either to take profits or to shift holdings into safer storage, which can precede significant market shifts.
Historically, when dormant wallets activate after long periods, it often coincides with major sentiment changes or distribution phases. In this case, the timing and volume suggest whales may be offloading their SHIB holdings while retail investors show signs of retreating, creating a fragile support environment for the token.
Retail Interest Fading as Whale Transactions Surge
Data shows a sharp increase in large SHIB transactions, especially in the $100,000 to $1 million range, which surged by over 1,600%. Conversely, smaller transactions under $10 dropped by more than 12%, indicating waning retail participation. This divergence typically occurs during distribution phases when big players exit and retail enthusiasm diminishes, potentially leading to sharper price declines if liquidity cannot absorb the selling pressure.
Exchange Reserves and Short-Term Selling Pressure
SHIB’s exchange reserves have dropped by 4.11%, now valued at about $1.076 billion. While this decline might suggest less immediate selling pressure—since fewer tokens are available on exchanges—it also reflects prior whale offloads or transfers to cold wallets. Importantly, falling reserves alone do not guarantee a bullish outlook, especially as this decrease coincides with bearish price action and whale exits.
Technical Outlook: Support Levels and Price Risks
Currently, SHIB is holding just above a key demand zone at $0.00001225, with a critical support level near $0.00001028. This support aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level, making it technically significant. The Stochastic RSI indicates oversold conditions, hinting at a possible short-term bounce.
However, bearish momentum remains strong. If SHIB fails to defend this demand zone, it could slide toward the 1.618 Fibonacci level at $0.00000573, signaling a much deeper correction. The next moves depend heavily on whether buyers step in to stabilize the price or if selling pressure intensifies.
Rising Short Interest and Market Sentiment
SHIB’s funding rate has dropped to -0.0036%, meaning traders are paying to hold short positions—a bearish signal. Historically, sustained negative funding rates can precede sharp declines or, alternatively, set the stage for short squeezes during rebounds. Currently, liquidation activity is minimal, indicating traders are cautious and avoiding high leverage, which reduces the chance of sudden explosive price moves.
What’s Next for SHIB?
The combination of whale exits, declining retail activity, and rising short interest paints a cautious picture for SHIB. Yet, the token’s position on a major demand zone with oversold technical indicators offers a glimmer of hope for a short-term rebound. The market’s next direction will hinge on buyer response at these critical levels.
If SHIB bounces, it could trap bearish traders and spark a relief rally. But a break below $0.00001028 might accelerate the downtrend, pushing prices toward much lower Fibonacci support levels.
