The upcoming June policy meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is drawing global attention—not just from traditional finance, but also from the crypto community. With speculation mounting that the BoJ could shift back toward quantitative easing (QE), many analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, believe this could be a major catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets 1.
What’s Happening with the BoJ?
The BoJ is scheduled to make its next interest rate decision on June 16–17. After a period of tightening, the central bank is now reportedly considering a softer approach to reducing its government bond purchases. While the current plan is to cut bond buying by 400 billion yen per quarter starting August 2024, there are discussions about slowing the pace of these reductions to 200 billion yen per quarter from April 2027 1.
This potential policy shift comes as Japan’s bond market faces rising yields, with the 30-year government bond yield hitting a record 3,185% in May 2025. Such moves have raised concerns about fiscal sustainability and repayment risk, prompting investors to look for alternative hedges—Bitcoin among them 1.
Why Does QE Matter for Crypto?
Quantitative easing is when a central bank buys government bonds to inject liquidity into the economy, lower interest rates, and encourage spending. If the BoJ pivots back to QE, it could weaken the yen and push global investors toward riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin 1.
Arthur Hayes argues that if the BoJ delays its current tightening and restarts QE, “risk assets are going to fly.” The logic is simple: more liquidity in the system often translates to higher prices for assets that thrive on risk and speculation, such as Bitcoin 1.
Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Sovereign Risk
Recent market moves support this thesis. Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $112,000 in May 2025, just days after Japanese bond yields spiked. According to Bitwise’s André Dragosch, institutions are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a hedge against sovereign default risk, especially as traditional “safe” assets like government bonds show signs of stress 1.
“Perceived default risk continues rising, yields continue rising? This is a rough benchmark of why Bitcoin could be heading toward $200,000,” Dragosch told Cointelegraph, highlighting Bitcoin’s appeal as an asset “free from counterparty risk” 1.
What to Watch Next
• The BoJ’s June 16–17 meeting is a key date for both traditional and crypto markets.
• Any signal of renewed QE could trigger a rally in Bitcoin and other risk assets.
• Rising Japanese bond yields and concerns about fiscal stability are pushing institutions to diversify into crypto.
For more on how central bank policy impacts crypto, check out What is Quantitative Easing and How Does It Work and Bitcoin’s All-Time High by Japanese Bond Market Crisis.
