As Bitcoin continues to strengthen its position in the cryptocurrency market, investors are eagerly anticipating the next altcoin season. Recent analysis from crypto expert ‘Stockmoney Lizards’ provides valuable insights on when and how to position for this potentially lucrative phase of the market cycle.
Understanding Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycles
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is a crucial metric that indicates what percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization belongs to Bitcoin . Currently, Bitcoin dominance remains high, trading within a well-defined channel, which according to market analysts, signals that we’re still in the early to mid-phase of the current bull market.
A general rule in crypto markets is that when Bitcoin dominance is high (above 50-60%), altcoins typically struggle . Conversely, when Bitcoin dominance decreases, it often signals that investors are moving their assets into altcoins, expecting higher returns . This pattern creates what traders refer to as the “altcoin season” – a period where alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin.
When to Position for Altcoin Season
According to Stockmoney Lizards, many investors prematurely call for an altcoin season, leading to misguided investment decisions. The analyst emphasizes that the true altcoin season typically occurs during the final phase of a crypto bull run, beginning when Bitcoin dominance breaks below the 60% support level.
Rather than buying altcoins based on hype or assumptions of immediate gains, the analyst recommends a more disciplined approach:
1. Wait for extreme oversold conditions – The best entry points come when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on 4-hour or daily timeframes drops below 25-30, indicating capitulation
2. Look for short-term rebounds – These moments often precede explosive moves of 50% to 200% in altcoin prices
3. Take profits strategically – Rotate gains back into Bitcoin to maximize returns while minimizing exposure to prolonged drawdowns
Institutional Influence on Market Dynamics
The current market behavior suggests that institutional capital is still primarily focused on building positions in Bitcoin before venturing into riskier, lower-cap assets . This preference for Bitcoin during the early and middle stages of a bull market is a historical pattern that continues to hold true.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s rising dominance isn’t necessarily bearish for altcoins in the long term. Instead, it represents a healthy sign of a maturing bull market. The real altcoin season doesn’t typically begin until BTC.D decisively breaks down from its channel and drops to historical lows.
Strategic Approach for Investors
For investors looking to capitalize on the eventual altcoin season, patience and strategic positioning are key. When altcoins experience significant declines compared to Bitcoin, they may present buying opportunities, especially for those with strong fundamentals .
The most successful approach appears to be letting Bitcoin lead the market while waiting for altcoins to reach oversold extremes before entering positions. This strategy helps avoid the common pitfall of chasing altcoins too early, only to watch Bitcoin continue to outperform.
As the crypto market continues to evolve in 2025, understanding the relationship between Bitcoin dominance and altcoin performance remains crucial for timing investments effectively and maximizing returns during different phases of the market cycle.
