The cryptocurrency market showed a measured response following the latest US-China trade agreement, with major tokens like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP maintaining most of their recent gains but lacking strong momentum for further rallies. The deal, which includes the reinstatement of rare earth exports and a commitment to the Geneva Consensus, has brought a sense of stability to global markets, but crypto traders remain cautious as they digest the long-term implications.
US-China Trade Truce: What Changed?
US and Chinese officials announced a framework to uphold the Geneva tariff truce and ease export restrictions, particularly on rare earth minerals and magnets. In return, the US will resume exports of key components such as semiconductor design software and aircraft parts to China. While this agreement could relieve some pressure on global supply chains, analysts note that a comprehensive, long-term solution is still out of reach, and uncertainty lingers over the global economic outlook .
Bitcoin: Cooling Off After a Rally
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged past $111,000 earlier in the week, but has since pulled back to around $109,274 as of Wednesday. The modest decline of 0.5% reflects a market in wait-and-see mode, with investors assessing the impact of the trade deal. Technical indicators suggest that while the uptrend remains intact, a further pullback is possible if bearish momentum continues. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are all trending upward, providing underlying support for BTC’s price action.
Ethereum and XRP: Uptrends Pause, Awaiting New Catalysts
Ethereum (ETH) has managed to stay above its previous consolidation range, holding support at $2,700. The token reached as high as $2,834 before correcting to $2,760. A daily close above $2,700 could reinforce bullish sentiment, especially as the SuperTrend indicator continues to flash a buy signal. Spot ETF inflows for Ethereum have also picked up, with the highest daily net inflow since May 21, suggesting renewed institutional interest.
XRP, meanwhile, is trading just below $2.33, with its uptrend stalling amid a SuperTrend sell signal. The token maintains support at $2.26, but a break below this level could see it test the 200-day EMA at $2.09. The current price action reflects trader indecision and the potential for consolidation before the next significant move.
Spot ETF Volumes Signal Cautious Optimism
Optimism around the trade deal has reignited interest in risk assets, with Bitcoin spot ETFs seeing net inflows of $431 million on Tuesday, up from $386 million the previous day. Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded strong inflows, indicating that institutional investors are gradually increasing their exposure to crypto assets as macroeconomic uncertainty persists .
Macro Backdrop: Tariffs, Growth, and Crypto’s Role
The World Bank recently revised its global growth forecast downward, citing ongoing tariff pressures and economic uncertainty. In this environment, cryptocurrencies are increasingly viewed as alternative assets that can offer diversification and a hedge against traditional market risks . As trade tensions ebb and flow, digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum may continue to attract attention from both retail and institutional investors looking for new opportunities.
