Solana (SOL), one of the leading blockchain platforms, is currently navigating a period of price weakness and muted network activity. Despite a recent dip, market watchers are eyeing several catalysts that could set the stage for a significant rebound, including the potential approval of a Solana spot ETF and the growing adoption of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).
Current Market Snapshot
SOL recently faced a sharp rejection at the $158 level, falling to $143 and marking a 14% decline over the past week. This downturn has been accompanied by a surge in leveraged trading, with open interest in SOL futures reaching 45.7 million SOL—up 19% from the previous month and now valued at $6.7 billion. However, the funding rate for perpetual futures has dropped to 0%, signaling a shift toward bearish sentiment and a lack of confidence among bullish traders .
Stagnant DApp Activity and Fading Memecoin Hype
Solana’s network activity has plateaued since its January peak. The total value locked (TVL) on the network remains steady at around $10 billion, but weekly revenue from decentralized applications (DApps) has dropped below $40 million, down from over $100 million earlier this year. The recent decline in memecoin trading, which previously drove much of Solana’s on-chain activity, has also contributed to the subdued environment.
ETF Approval: A Game-Changer on the Horizon?
The most anticipated short-term catalyst for SOL is the potential approval of a spot Solana ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Optimism is building, with Polymarket traders assigning a 91% probability of approval in 2025, and major asset managers like CoinShares and Bitwise aggressively pursuing SEC approval . Bloomberg analysts have even suggested that a green light could come as early as next month, reflecting the SEC’s accelerated review process .
If approved, a Solana ETF could unlock new institutional capital and drive renewed interest in the token, potentially reversing the current bearish trend. The listing of VanEck’s VSOL on the DTCC, a key step toward ETF launch, underscores growing institutional readiness and could pave the way for further innovation, such as staking-enabled products or multi-asset crypto baskets .
Long-Term Growth: Tokenized Assets and Institutional Adoption
Beyond the ETF narrative, analysts highlight the long-term potential of Solana as a platform for tokenized traditional finance (TradFi) assets and RWAs. Cantor Fitzgerald’s research points to Solana’s operational efficiency, strong developer growth, and its appeal as a treasury asset for companies. These factors, combined with the network’s high throughput and expanding DeFi and NFT ecosystems, position Solana as a credible contender for mainstream financial products.
What’s Next for SOL?
While the $200 price target may seem distant given current derivatives data and network stagnation, a shift in investor sentiment—driven by ETF approval or a resurgence in DApp activity—could quickly change the outlook. For now, Solana’s trajectory will depend on regulatory developments, institutional adoption, and the network’s ability to reignite user engagement.
