In a significant development for the crypto market, leading Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability of approval for several altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to over 90%, following a notable shift in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approach to digital asset products. This move could pave the way for mainstream investment in cryptocurrencies like XRP, Litecoin, and Solana.
Analysts See 90%+ Approval Odds for Major Altcoin ETFs
Bloomberg’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, two of the most closely followed ETF analysts, have updated their forecasts, now assigning a 95% chance of approval for spot ETFs based on Litecoin, Solana, and XRP. Other altcoins, including Dogecoin, Cardano, Hedera, and Avalanche, are also seen as having a 90% likelihood of getting the green light from regulators .
This surge in confidence is attributed to the SEC’s recent positive engagement with ETF issuers. The regulator has acknowledged key filings (notably the 19b-4 forms) and requested updates on staking plans and public comments for products tied to Solana and XRP. These actions are widely interpreted as signs of a more constructive regulatory environment for crypto ETFs .
What’s Driving the Optimism?
• Regulatory Engagement: The SEC’s willingness to interact with issuers and request amendments to filings signals a shift from previous reluctance to a more open stance on crypto ETFs .
• Commodity Classification: Many of the underlying assets, such as Litecoin and Solana, are increasingly viewed as commodities, which simplifies the approval process .
• Market Infrastructure: The existence of regulated futures markets for these altcoins further supports the case for ETF approval, as it provides a framework for oversight and risk management .
Timeline and Market Impact
While the odds of approval are high, the exact timing remains uncertain. Some analysts anticipate decisions as early as July, coinciding with final SEC deadlines for several applications, while others suggest approvals could extend into October or November . Regardless, the consensus is that it’s a matter of “when, not if” these ETFs will launch.
The approval of altcoin ETFs is expected to drive increased institutional participation and liquidity in the crypto market, potentially accelerating adoption and price discovery for the underlying assets.
Key Altcoins in the ETF Spotlight
| Altcoin | Approval Odds | Notable Filings/Issuers |
| Litecoin | 95% | Grayscale, Hashdex, Bitwise |
| Solana | 95% | Franklin Templeton, others |
| XRP | 95% | Franklin Templeton, others |
| Dogecoin | 90% | Multiple |
| Cardano | 90% | Multiple |
| Hedera | 90% | Multiple |
| Avalanche | 90% | Multiple |
Looking Ahead
The SEC’s evolving approach to crypto ETFs marks a pivotal moment for digital assets. As regulatory clarity improves, the path is being cleared for a new wave of investment products that could reshape the landscape for both retail and institutional investors.
