As the U.S. political landscape shifts, the future of Bitcoin (BTC) is sparking debate among hedge fund executives. Eric Semler, chairman of Semler Scientific and founder of TCS Capital Management, stands out as a contrarian voice, doubling down on Bitcoin while many in traditional finance remain skeptical about its prospects beyond the Trump administration 1.
Hedge Funds Question Bitcoin’s Staying Power
Many hedge fund managers view Bitcoin as a speculative asset whose fortunes are closely tied to the current U.S. administration’s crypto-friendly stance. According to Semler, there’s a prevailing belief that if President Trump leaves office, political support for Bitcoin could fade, potentially triggering a significant price correction . This skepticism persists despite Trump’s recent moves, such as signing an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the U.S. government .
Semler’s Contrarian Bet: Building a Bitcoin Treasury
While his peers hesitate, Semler is taking bold action. In May 2024, Semler Scientific became the second U.S. public company to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy, following in the footsteps of industry leaders like MicroStrategy. The company has announced plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings from 4,449 BTC to an ambitious 105,000 BTC by 2027—a target that would represent nearly 0,5% of Bitcoin’s total supply. To achieve this, Semler Scientific is leveraging a mix of capital market strategies, including share sales and convertible notes, and has even hired a dedicated Director of Bitcoin Strategy to oversee the plan.
Industry Trends: Hedge Funds Slowly Embrace Crypto
Despite the skepticism, the hedge fund industry is gradually warming up to digital assets. A 2024 survey by the Alternative Investment Management Association and PwC found that 47% of hedge fund managers now have some exposure to cryptocurrencies, up from 29% in 2023 . Looking ahead, nearly all surveyed CFOs expect their funds to allocate a portion of their assets to crypto by 2026.
Risks and Rewards: Navigating Uncertainty
Semler’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy is not without risks. The scale of the planned accumulation raises questions about market liquidity, execution, and the potential impact on the company’s core med-tech business . Regulatory scrutiny and accounting changes could also introduce volatility to earnings. However, Semler views the prevailing doubt as a bullish signal, arguing that outsized returns often come from investments that the majority dismiss 1.
“When you’re making a bet on something that the majority doesn’t believe in, and you’re right, you make so much more money,” says Semler.
The Bottom Line
As the U.S. approaches a potential post-Trump era, the debate over Bitcoin’s long-term value is intensifying. While many hedge funds remain cautious, Semler Scientific’s bold move signals growing institutional interest and a willingness to challenge conventional wisdom. Whether this contrarian bet pays off will depend on both market dynamics and the evolving regulatory environment.
