Bitcoin’s price journey in 2025 is drawing striking parallels to its 2021 cycle, according to market analysts, raising questions about whether the current rally is sustainable or if another correction is on the horizon. As Bitcoin recently rebounded above $105,000 after a brief dip below six figures, technical experts are urging caution, suggesting that the market may not have seen the final leg of this correction yet .
A Familiar Pattern: 2021 All Over Again?
Technical analyst Quantum Ascend points out that Bitcoin’s current price structure closely mirrors the 2021 cycle: a strong run-up, a peak, a pullback, and then a second high. This sequence, followed by an ABC corrective pattern, led to a deeper flush in 2021 before the market found its bottom. The analyst believes a similar scenario could play out now, with the recent sell-off unlikely to mark the ultimate capitulation .
“We’ve been tracking this ABC correction since March. The structure suggests we’re not done yet—there’s likely one more move down before the next major rally,” Quantum Ascend explained.
Key Levels to Watch
The analyst’s base case anticipates a short-term relief rally toward the $107,000–$108,000 range, where a key trendline from previous post-halving peaks converges. However, the real test lies in the so-called “pain box” between the 0.702 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, which currently sit between $96,500 and $92,000. In 2021, Bitcoin’s correction bottomed precisely at the 0.618 level—a move that could repeat if history rhymes .
Market Sentiment and Macro Factors
Despite the recent bounce, macro sentiment remains fragile. The presence of a Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap at $92,000 is attracting retail interest, but the analyst warns that professional traders may use this liquidity to their advantage, potentially leading to further volatility.
“Retail is just a washing machine… that buy isn’t going to get filled,” Quantum Ascend cautioned, highlighting the risks of chasing the market during uncertain times.
What’s Next for Bitcoin and Altcoins?
If Bitcoin follows the projected path, a final flush into the $92,000–$96,500 zone could set the stage for a new impulsive advance. The analyst’s upside target for the next rally is a measured $132,000, a level supported by multiple technical factors. This move could also coincide with a breakout moment for altcoins, as Bitcoin dominance wanes and capital rotates into other crypto assets .
For now, traders are closely monitoring the $108,000 resistance and the critical Fibonacci support zone. A decisive move through these levels will likely determine whether the correction is over or if more downside awaits.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive
Despite short-term caution, the analyst remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, advising investors to consider dollar-cost averaging through the volatility. As always, market participants are reminded to manage risk and stay informed as the next chapter in Bitcoin’s price story unfolds.
