Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is making headlines this week, not just for its price action but for the underlying data supporting its rally. The cryptocurrency has gained 2% today, building on a robust 6% surge from Wednesday, and is now approaching the psychologically significant $500 mark. What’s fueling this momentum, and is there room for further growth? Let’s break down the key drivers behind BCH’s recent performance in a fintech-friendly, accessible style.
On-Chain Metrics Point to Continued Growth
One of the most telling indicators for Bitcoin Cash right now is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a metric that gauges whether the asset is over- or undervalued by comparing its current market price to the average price at which coins last moved. Currently, BCH’s MVRV ratio sits at 0.665. Historically, profit-taking among investors has only ramped up when this ratio hits 0.729, as seen in March and May 2024. This suggests there’s still headroom for BCH to climb before significant selling pressure emerges .
If the MVRV ratio were to spike above 0.729, it could even approach the December 2024 peak of 1.01, potentially amplifying investor gains. For those new to crypto analytics, a rising MVRV ratio often signals growing optimism but also hints at when a rally might cool off .
Bitcoin Cash MVRV data. Source: Santiment
Derivatives Market Shows Bullish Sentiment
Beyond spot trading, the derivatives market is also flashing bullish signals. Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin Cash futures has jumped by nearly 8% in the past 24 hours, reaching $471,99 million. This uptick reflects increased capital flowing into BCH derivatives, typically a sign of heightened trader confidence. Additionally, the funding rate has turned positive, indicating that buyers are outpacing sellers in the futures market—a classic sign of bullish momentum .
Technical Patterns Support the Uptrend
From a technical analysis perspective, BCH is trading within a rising channel pattern, a formation that often precedes further upward movement. The price has already surpassed the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement level at $490, drawn from the 52-week high of $640 down to the yearly low of $249. If BCH can close above this level, the next target could be the 78,6% Fibonacci level at $556 .
Momentum indicators also support the bullish case. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) remains above its signal line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64, suggesting the uptrend still has legs before entering overbought territory.
Bitcoin Cash derivatives data. Source: Coinglass
What’s Next for Bitcoin Cash?
If BCH maintains its current trajectory and breaks above the $490 resistance, a move toward the 52-week high is on the table. However, failure to hold this level could see the price retest support around $450. For now, both on-chain and market data point to a market that’s optimistic but not yet overheated.
