Bitcoin recent surge past the $100,000 mark has captured headlines, but a closer look at the data reveals a rally driven more by leveraged speculation than by robust, organic demand. While the price briefly touched $108,000 before retreating, on-chain indicators and trading volumes suggest the foundation for this move is less solid than it appears.
Speculative Trading Takes the Lead
The latest price jump was fueled primarily by traders in the futures market, many of whom used borrowed funds to chase short-term gains. Despite the impressive price action, key metrics like funding rates and the three-month futures basis have actually declined, signaling that bullish conviction among traders is waning. In simple terms, fewer investors are making large, long-term bets on Bitcoin, and much of the recent activity is coming from those looking for quick profits rather than from new, committed buyers.
Spot Market Lags Behind
Unlike previous bull runs, spot trading volumes have not kept pace with the futures frenzy. At Bitcoin’s May peak of $111,910, daily spot volume was around $7,65 billion—well below the $20 billion-plus seen during earlier cycles. This lack of fresh capital from retail investors and long-term holders suggests that the rally is not being driven by widespread new interest, but rather by a smaller group of active traders.
Institutional Interest Remains Steady
Despite the speculative nature of the current rally, institutional players continue to accumulate Bitcoin. In the past week alone, major firms like MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and ProCap BTC collectively purchased about $1 billion worth of Bitcoin. Additionally, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs absorbed over $1,5 billion in new inflows, indicating that some large investors still see long-term value in the asset—even as short-term traders dominate the headlines .
Supply Squeeze: A Double-Edged Sword
On-chain data shows that only about 7 million BTC remain freely available on exchanges, while roughly 14 million BTC are held by long-term holders who rarely move their coins. This tightening supply could support prices if demand returns, but it also means that any sudden wave of selling could have an outsized impact on the market .
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
The current rally above $100,000 appears to be more of a sprint by margin traders than a marathon led by new believers. Historically, rallies driven by heavy leverage often see sharp corrections. However, ongoing institutional buying and ETF inflows could provide a buffer against major downturns. For now, market watchers are looking for renewed spot demand or a stabilization in futures activity before declaring the uptrend sustainable.
