Ripple XRP is back in the spotlight as two major developments could reshape its trajectory: the odds of a U.S. spot ETF approval have soared to 95%, and the long-awaited XRPL EVM Sidechain is now live on mainnet. Both milestones are fueling speculation about a potential price rebound, even as the broader crypto market remains subdued.
ETF Approval Odds Hit 95%
Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot XRP ETF to 95% by year-end. This follows a wave of regulatory momentum after the SEC acknowledged proposals from major asset managers like Grayscale, Bitwise, and WisdomTree. If approved, an XRP ETF would allow investors to gain exposure to XRP directly through stock exchanges, without needing to hold the token themselves—a move that could attract significant institutional capital and boost liquidity .
Canada is already ahead of the curve: Purpose Investments recently received regulatory approval to launch a spot XRP ETF on the Toronto Stock Exchange, with the token rallying 7% on the news . This international precedent adds weight to the bullish outlook for U.S. approval.
XRPL EVM Sidechain Goes Live
Ripple has also launched the XRPL EVM Sidechain on mainnet, a major upgrade that brings Ethereum-compatible smart contracts to the XRP Ledger. This integration allows developers to build and deploy decentralized applications (dApps) using familiar Ethereum tools, while leveraging XRPL’s speed and efficiency. The move is expected to drive new use cases in Web3 finance, including stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization, and cross-border payments .
Ripple CTO David Schwartz highlighted that the sidechain “extends the capabilities of the ecosystem without changing the fundamentals that make the XRPL reliable.” For developers and users, this means more flexibility and interoperability, potentially increasing demand for XRP as the network’s utility token.
Market Sentiment and Technical Outlook
Despite these positive catalysts, XRP’s price action has been muted. The token is trading around $2,19, down 2% on the day, reflecting broader market lethargy. Open interest in XRP futures has dropped significantly since January, signaling reduced speculative activity.
Technically, XRP is holding key support at $2,18. If this level holds, analysts see potential for a breakout toward $2,34 and $2,65. However, a drop below $2,06 could trigger further declines. The Money Flow Index (MFI) at 40 suggests a possible shift toward risk-on sentiment, which could stabilize prices and set the stage for a recovery.
XRP/USDT weekly chart
Regulatory Backdrop
The ongoing SEC vs. Ripple legal saga continues to cast a shadow. A 2023 court ruling determined that XRP is not a security when sold to retail investors via exchanges, but is considered a security in institutional sales. This nuanced outcome offers partial clarity but leaves open questions about the regulatory status of other digital assets.
What’s Next for XRP?
With ETF approval odds at record highs and the XRPL EVM Sidechain unlocking new possibilities for developers, XRP is positioned for a potential turnaround. However, broader market sentiment and regulatory developments will remain key drivers in the months ahead.
