July 2, 2025 – While Bitcoin trades confidently above $107,000, a key piece of research suggests the most seasoned investors are looking toward a much higher price point before they consider this bull market to have truly peaked. According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the magic number is $140,000.
This isn’t just speculation; it’s a data-driven target based on the profit-taking behavior of Bitcoin’s most patient players: the long-term holders (LTHs).
Bitcoin LTH realized profit data. Source: CryptoQuant
The Profitability Gap
In recent weeks, as Bitcoin tested new all-time highs, LTHs—entities that have held their BTC for at least six months—have been a primary source of selling pressure. However, the profits they are realizing now pale in comparison to the gains seen earlier in the 2024 rally.
To measure this, analysts use the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a metric that essentially compares Bitcoin’s current price to the average price at which all coins were last moved. It provides a clear picture of the market’s overall profitability.
Currently, the average realized profit for these long-term investors sits around 220%. While impressive, it falls short of the bull market’s earlier fervor. According to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, LTHs saw average realized profits of approximately 300% in March 2024 and 350% in December 2024.
| Metric | Current Level | March 2024 Peak | December 2024 Peak |
| LTH Average Realized Profit | ~220% | ~300% | ~350% |
| LTH Average Cost Basis | ~$33,800 | – | – |
| Implied BTC Price Target | $140,000 | – | – |
“Although these profits may seem substantial, we’re still far from the levels observed during the tops of this cycle,” Darkfost explains. To return to those peak profit margins, “BTC would need to reach $140,000. A price level that many are calling for.”
The Broader Market Picture
This on-chain data point arrives as the broader market shows signs of renewed strength. After several weeks of consolidation, Bitcoin’s price action is attempting to break out of a downtrend that has been in place since mid-May.
Prominent trader Rekt Capital noted in a recent analysis that Bitcoin is undergoing an “anticipated post-breakout retest,” a healthy technical step that could set the stage for the next leg up. This suggests that the market structure has the potential to absorb selling pressure and support a move toward higher valuations.
For investors, the $140,000 level serves as more than just an ambitious forecast. It represents a psychologically and financially significant milestone where the market’s most experienced participants would see their profits align with previous cycle peaks, potentially signaling a true market top.
