Bitcoin could retreat to $90,000 in the short term following the passage of President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” warns BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. The legislation, set to be signed into law on July 4, enables tax cuts and debt-ceiling increases, potentially triggering U.S. Treasury borrowing that drains market liquidity. Hayes cautions this may “interrupt the bull market briefly” but maintains a long-term bullish outlook, expecting Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory afterward.
Bitcoin recently traded near $109,594—just 2% below its May all-time high of $111,814—amid broader market volatility. Hayes links the predicted dip to the Treasury refilling its General Account, which could temporarily reduce capital flow into risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Key Context
• Stablecoin Motive: Hayes argues U.S. interest in stablecoins (like the recently passed GENIUS Act) focuses on deficit control, not payment efficiency. Banks could use these tokens to buy Treasury bills, reducing national debt.
• Macro View: Hayes has consistently tied Bitcoin’s performance to monetary policy, previously forecasting $250,000 by 2025 if the Fed shifts to quantitative easing .
• Market Reaction: Immediate volatility is expected, but Hayes emphasizes this is a “short-term pause,” not a trend reversal.
Why This Matters
Hayes’ analysis underscores how U.S. fiscal decisions ripple through crypto markets. While short-term dips may unsettle traders, his broader thesis—that Bitcoin thrives amid fiat supply expansion—remains unchanged. For investors, this signals potential buying opportunities during pullbacks.
“Proceed with caution; the bull market might be interrupted for a short period of time.”
— Arthur Hayes, via Decrypt
