Bitcoin is experiencing an unusual period of calm, with price volatility at historic lows, hovering just 2% below its all-time high. However, analysts at QCP Capital are sounding the alarm, suggesting that this quiet phase might be the precursor to significant market turbulence in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. If you’re invested in crypto or considering jumping in, here’s what you need to know about Bitcoin’s current state and the potential fireworks ahead.
A Quiet Market with Hidden Risks
Right now, Bitcoin’s price stability might seem like a safe haven for investors. The market appears to have factored in a “just right” scenario, with expectations of delayed tariffs, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee later this year, and ongoing fiscal deficits. But QCP Capital warns that this calm could be deceptive. “Volatility may be on a summer break, but Q3 and Q4 could still deliver fireworks,” they noted in a recent blog post.
Adding to the tension is the looming deadline of August 1, set by President Donald Trump for new trade deals. While risk assets like Bitcoin have so far shrugged off tariff rhetoric, analysts caution that actual policy changes could have a significant anti-growth impact, testing the resilience of global markets.
BlackRock’s Bitcoin Dominance Grows
Amid this quiet period, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), listed on Nasdaq, has made headlines by surpassing 700,000 BTC in holdings—equivalent to 3.52% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply of 19.8 million coins. Since its launch 18 months ago, the ETF has attracted nearly $53 billion in inflows, making it the fastest-growing exchange-traded fund in the industry’s history. Currently, its assets under management are valued at just under $75.6 billion.
BlackRock’s influence extends beyond Bitcoin. Its iShares Ethereum Trust holds 1.5% of all ETH, and experts like Jamie Elkaleh from Bitget Wallet suggest that continued ETF inflows could lead to a supply squeeze. This means fewer coins available on the open market, potentially driving prices up and increasing volatility.
Steady Support from ETFs and Corporates
Despite the sidelined activity from major players like whales, original Bitcoin holders (OGs), and miners, Bitcoin’s price remains robust, supported by consistent inflows into ETFs and public corporate treasuries. This institutional backing is a key factor keeping Bitcoin close to its peak, even as volatility remains low.
Broader Market Confidence
The calm in the crypto market mirrors trends in traditional finance. Equities are on an upward trajectory, with the S&P 500 up 3.6% over the past month to $6,226.78 and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 4.2%, both hitting all-time highs. Additionally, credit spreads—the difference in yield between corporate bonds and safer government debt—are at their tightest since the March-April correction, signaling strong investor confidence.
What’s Next for Bitcoin Investors?
For those new to crypto or seasoned investors, the current low volatility might seem like a good time to buy in. However, the warnings from QCP Capital highlight the importance of staying vigilant. Potential supply squeezes from ETF inflows and geopolitical risks tied to trade policies could shake up the market in the coming months. Keeping an eye on macro signals, like Trump’s trade deadline, will be crucial for navigating Bitcoin’s next moves.
As the crypto market continues to mature with growing institutional involvement, the interplay between traditional finance and digital assets becomes ever more significant. Stay tuned for updates as we approach the potentially turbulent quarters ahead.
