Bitcoin’s recent upward trajectory appears to be losing its vigor, as the leading digital asset currently trades within a narrow range just below the $120,000 mark. A fresh report from 10x Research indicates that the cryptocurrency is entering a historically challenging period, suggesting that a price correction might be on the horizon.
August has consistently been Bitcoin weakest performing month over the past decade. Analysis from 10x Research reveals that the majority of Augusts have seen Bitcoin’s value decline by 5% to 20%. This established seasonal trend adds pressure to a market already showing signs of flagging momentum. While notable exceptions occurred in the post-halving bull market years of 2013, 2017, and 2021, the immediate outlook points towards a period of seasonal weakness.
A significant factor contributing to Bitcoin’s price appreciation this year has been the substantial influx of capital into its network. Cumulative inflows have surpassed $1 trillion, with $206 billion specifically recorded in 2025. However, the 10x Research report highlights a deceleration in this critical metric. The 30-day rolling average of these inflows has decreased from $62,4 mil millones to $59,3 mil millones. This pattern has historically preceded consolidation phases, mirroring observations from the first and fourth quarters of 2024. Such diminishing capital inflow suggests a reduction in buying pressure, which could directly impact price stability.
Given these converging indicators, Markus Thielen, co-founder and lead analyst at 10x Research, anticipates a probable break below the $117,000 level. The report identifies immediate support at $112,000, with a more substantial floor expected around the $106,000-$110,000 threshold. Thielen remarks that despite the billions in recent capital inflows from corporate treasuries, the actual price impact has been surprisingly muted, casting doubt on the likelihood of significant short-term upside.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin enthusiasts might still find a silver lining in the fact that 2025 is a post-halving year. The three instances where Bitcoin registered robust August gains (2013, 2017, 2021) all coincided with similar post-halving periods characterized by strong bull markets. This historical parallel suggests that while immediate consolidation may be imminent, the broader bullish narrative for 2025 could still pave the way for a positive trajectory later in the year.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
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