Ethereum is demonstrating significant resilience, establishing a firm foothold above the crucial $4.000 psychological level. This price stability is not occurring in a vacuum but is being shaped by two powerful, converging forces: a strong trend of asset withdrawals from exchanges by long-term investors and the calculated, high-volume trading of a notorious market participant—the Radiant Capital hacker.
Market Confidence Signals a Bullish Undercurrent
On-chain data reveals a clear pattern of investor behavior that points towards growing conviction in Ethereum’s value. The flow of ETH to and from exchanges serves as a key barometer of market sentiment.
- Late July Volatility: Between July 29–30, as ETH prices corrected towards the $3.400–$3.500 range, exchanges saw sharp outflows spiking to nearly -$150 million, indicating dip-buying activity.
- Early August Accumulation: This trend intensified from August 1–6, with persistent outflows reinforcing a price floor between $3.200 and $3.300. This period of accumulation set the stage for the subsequent rebound.
- Mid-August Profit-Taking: As the price rallied towards $4.800 between August 7–13, inflows spiked above $200 million, a classic sign of traders moving assets onto exchanges to realize profits.
- Renewed Support: Most recently, from August 14–20, the pendulum swung back decisively. Heavy outflows, consistently below -$100 million and touching -$200 million, have provided robust support, absorbing selling pressure and helping ETH consolidate comfortably above $4.000.
Source: Coinglass
This pattern, where investors withdraw assets during price consolidation, typically suggests a reduction in immediate selling pressure and a long-term holding strategy.
The Hacker’s Gambit: From Theft to Market Force
Adding a layer of intrigue to the market dynamics is the Radiant Capital hacker. This entity, who initially stole $53 million and converted it into 21.957 ETH, has become a significant trader. By mid-August, through a series of shrewd trades, the value of this stolen stash had swelled to an estimated $102,54 million.
The hacker strategically sold 9.631 ETH at an average price of $4.562, cashing out $43,94 million near the recent peak. Now, in a move that aligns with the broader market’s bullish sentiment, the hacker has re-entered the market. They recently spent 8,64 million DAI to acquire 2.109,54 ETH at an average price of $4.096.
This significant “buy the dip” action not only adds considerable trading volume but also signals the hacker’s belief that the $4.000 level represents a new floor.
A Confluence of Factors
The current stability of Ethereum is a story of converging interests. On one hand, the macro trend of sustained exchange outflows points to a broad base of investors moving their ETH into cold storage, betting on future appreciation. On the other hand, the micro-drama of a single, large-scale hacker making a calculated bet on the same price level reinforces this support. Together, these forces are creating a powerful narrative of resilience and renewed confidence in Ethereum’s trajectory.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should always conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions in cryptocurrencies, which are highly volatile and speculative assets.
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