Bitcoin has stabilized above the $115,000 mark, pausing after last week vigorous 5% rally and revealing a market in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow’s pivotal Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The broader crypto market remains composed, with major tokens like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP trading sideways. Notably, Avalanche and Polkadot exhibit localized strength, each climbing 2% as the total market capitalization edges 0.3% higher to $4.01 trillion.
Last week’s gains were powered by renewed rate-cut expectations following weaker-than-forecast US jobs data. As policymakers commence a two-day meeting, the spotlight turns to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut, the first reduction after a nine-month hold. While this shift to a friendlier interest rate regime has been extensively priced in, investor enthusiasm now centers on the Fed’s updated growth forecasts and the new dot plot, where the potential for three rate cuts by year-end is being scrutinized.
Yet, the landscape is more nuanced than just a rate-driven rally. While lower rates typically enhance the appeal of risk assets, both US equities and altcoins are capturing more capital. The Nasdaq, for example, has soared 50% from its April lows to hit all-time highs, contrasting with Bitcoin’s position about 7% below its own $124,000 peak. Meanwhile, Bitcoin dominance continues to slip, now at 57%-58%, as altcoins command greater investor attention. The TOTAL2 index (crypto capitalization excluding BTC) recently registered a record $1.74 trillion, while the Altcoin Season Index surged to 80, its highest mark since January, reflecting this rotation.
Ethereum and Solana, in particular, are benefitting from institutional demand and growing activity among Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATs). This sectoral momentum raises questions about Bitcoin’s near-term upside—even under dovish monetary conditions.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has extended its recovery from the September lows of $107,200, clearing resistance at $112,000 and the 50-day moving average to achieve a recent peak of $116,800. Presently, BTC is consolidating above both $115,000 and the 50 SMA, with bullish sentiment underpinned by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50. Buyers are targeting $120,000 as the next resistance, potentially re-opening the path to fresh all-time highs near $124,400.
Immediate support is at 114.3k, the 50 SMA, and below, 110k comes into play. It would take a break below 107.2k to create a lower low.
As the Fed deliberates, all eyes remain on whether Bitcoin can surmount short-term headwinds—and if the last true lever for risk assets, interest rates, can set the stage for the next leg of crypto’s evolution.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should always conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions in cryptocurrencies, which are highly volatile and speculative assets.
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