Ripple’s XRP has re-entered bearish territory, with technical signals and on-chain analytics converging on the risk of a further price retreat. After narrowly breaching the $3.01 mark, XRP has slipped back below $3, and the current trading action suggests an intensifying struggle between bullish optimism and mounting sell pressure from major holders.
Chart Patterns Signal Caution
TradingView data highlights a descending triangle pattern on XRP’s daily chart—a formation typically signaling downside momentum. Despite a brief rally toward $3.66 earlier this year, XRP has been unable to establish a sustained foothold above $3. The attempted breakout above resistance failed to gain traction, leaving analysts wary. If the $3 level, reinforced by the 50-day simple moving average, is not reclaimed, projections point to possible declines toward $2.70. A further slide could see the 200-day simple moving average tested around $2.50, with the triangle’s full downside target near $2.06—a potential correction of 31% from current levels.
Additional caution emerges on the four-hour chart, which reveals a bear flag pattern. Should XRP decisively lose its $3 support, analysts warn that the path to $2.40 may open up. Conversely, renewed bullish momentum and a move above $3.20 could kick off a recovery, targeting $3.40 or even a retest of the $3.66 high.
Whale Activity and Exchange Flows Intensify Downside Risks
On-chain metrics reinforce the technical outlook. Data from Santiment shows XRP “whale” wallets—those holding between 1 million and 10 million tokens—have sharply reduced their balances in recent weeks, liquidating approximately 160 million XRP (almost $476 million at today’s prices). These liquidations have sent token balances at exchanges surging by 665 million XRP since late August, according to Glassnode.
Chart of XRP Active Addresses | Source: Glassnode
A rise in exchange reserves frequently signals that sizable amounts of tokens are being prepared for sale, heightening price susceptibility to sell-offs. At present, total XRP balances on exchanges stand at nearly 4 billion tokens—the highest in over a month.
Network Activity Slows
Accompanying the sell-side pressure, network fundamentals are also softening. Active addresses on the XRP Ledger have slumped from 50,500 in July to just 21,000 currently, with new address creation also markedly slower. These trends suggest diminishing transactional demand and waning retail participation, further clouding the near-term price outlook.
Looking Ahead
With technical and on-chain signals both tilting negative, XRP holders face a pivotal period. Key support at $3 has become the battleground. As whales offload millions and exchange supply mounts, XRP’s ability to stabilize could hinge on whether buyers can regain the initiative and unlock a reversal above established resistance levels.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should always conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions in cryptocurrencies, which are highly volatile and speculative assets.
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