U.S. regulatory momentum is reshaping the digital asset landscape, with implications that could upend one of the industry’s most enduring narratives: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, speaking with Bloomberg, argues that new U.S. crypto legislation—the recently enacted GENIUS Act and the anticipated CLARITY Act—marks a transformative moment that could rewrite crypto market behavior and investor expectations.
Historically, Bitcoin’s value has surged and receded in a pattern tied to “halving” events, which reduce mining rewards approximately every four years. This scarcity mechanic has fueled both euphoric bull runs and inevitable corrections, as seen in 2017, 2021, and again following the latest halving in April 2024. Yet Novogratz believes the current cycle could break from this rhythm, fundamentally altered by shifting U.S. policy.
The engine of change? Two pieces of legislation. The GENIUS Act introduces a rigorous regulatory framework for stablecoins, supporting their integration into mainstream finance, including seamless use across platforms from iPhones to major social networks. The pending CLARITY Act, described by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong as a “freight train leaving the station,” promises to clarify federal oversight of digital assets—ushering in a new level of institutional participation by settling long-standing regulatory uncertainty.
Novogratz forecasts that this “twin bookend” of legislation will unleash waves of new market entrants and capital—a force strong enough to override the established four-year cycle dynamics. “You’re going to have this new wave of participation,” he notes, “So we might not be in the traditional cycle.”
Despite concerns from some U.S. lawmakers over the political optics of crypto engagement, including scrutiny of the Trump family’s interests, Novogratz maintains that legislative momentum is now bipartisan. The House Financial Services Committee has signaled plans to advance the CLARITY Act within months, potentially locking in a regulatory milestone before year-end.
Market volatility persists, as evidenced by a recent $200 billion crypto sell-off attributed to capitulation by large Chinese miners and bearish activity from influential industry players. Still, Novogratz characterizes the pullback as “temporary,” arguing that structural reforms and clearer rules foster greater resilience for digital assets in the long term.
The U.S. is primed to redefine crypto’s investment cycle. With both legislative clarity and new institutional capital on the horizon, the sector is navigating toward a future where predictable cycles give way to continuous evolution—transforming not just Bitcoin, but the broader financial system.
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