The Bitcoin bull market stands at a crossroads where fundamentals remain robust but momentum has yet to ignite another leg up. According to a granular analysis by CryptoQuant’s CEO, industry metrics reveal a rare convergence: realized capitalization continues to climb, network hashrate hits record highs, and most major holder groups remain deeply in profit. Yet, the market lacks the speculative fervor typically seen at the final stages of crypto bull runs.
On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin wallets’ average cost basis is now $55,900, meaning holders are collectively up approximately 93% on average. Over the past week alone, realized capitalization—a proxy for true ‘money at work’ that tallies coins at their last transacted price—has risen by $8 billion, reaching $1.1 trillion. This signals sustained inflows and risk appetite, even as the spot price stalls near $110,000.
What’s behind this divergence between network growth and market price? The answer is not a lack of demand, but rather persistent selling pressure, as liquidity providers and profitable entities gradually distribute into market strength. Institutional demand, which has fueled much of Bitcoin’s recent growth, is currently softer. New inflows are led primarily by ETFs and corporate treasury buyers, while exchanges and miners—both groups now sitting on nearly 2x gains—take profits and moderate their exposure.
Examining cost bases, ETFs and major custodial wallets hold coins just below current market prices, while long-term whales remain up over 150%. This distribution tempers the risk of large-scale forced selling while simultaneously constraining the energetic bid that typically emerges when fresh capital pushes aggressively into the market.
Notably, the growth rate gap between Bitcoin’s market capitalization and its realized cap remains moderate—a sign that, while valuations are expanding, the conditions for a euphoric, late-cycle top are not in place. Whales’ unrealized profits, often a precursor to cycle peaks, are far from extreme, suggesting either that market hype has yet to appear or that the asset’s scale now precludes the kind of explosive profit ratios seen in previous cycles.
The market’s microstructure further underscores this stalemate. There is a marked decrease in BTC supplied as collateral on futures venues: whales are less eager to open new long positions with Bitcoin, even as overall leverage in perpetuals remains high by historical standards. This balance dampens trending price action, sustaining choppy conditions and increasing the risk of volatile liquidations.
Meanwhile, the mining sector signals long-term optimism. The network’s hashrate continues to hit all-time highs—major publicly listed miners are expanding, not consolidating—pointing to ongoing investment in sector infrastructure and confidence in Bitcoin’s financial future. Yet, rising hashrate also necessitates growing miner cash flows and increases their need to manage treasury risk, which can amplify neutral-to-negative price effects in flat markets.
Looking ahead, the crux for renewed price momentum remains with institutional channels—specifically, ETF and corporate treasury demand. If buying from these segments accelerates, the market’s buoyancy could quickly return. If not, Bitcoin’s realized capitalization may continue its upward grind from steady inflows while spot price meanders in a state of distribution absorption.
In sum, the bull market’s foundation is intact: strong on-chain participation, healthy network security, and widespread profitability across holder cohorts. However, the immediate upside is capped by profit taking and subdued institutional enthusiasm. For crypto investors and market observers, these are the interlude dynamics that separate fleeting speculative manias from market cycles driven by real, scaled demand.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should always conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions in cryptocurrencies, which are highly volatile and speculative assets.
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