Chainlink (LINK) maintains its grip above the psychologically significant $14 mark, navigating a market still jittery from the previous week’s volatility and extended sell-off. Despite the broader crypto market staging a modest recovery, Chainlink’s advance is tempered by an evident lack of retail enthusiasm and continued weakness in derivatives activity.
A Closer Look at Derivatives and Retail Turnout
Futures Open Interest (OI), the barometer of leveraged bets, has languished around $548 million for two consecutive days—far from the record $1.91 billion registered in August. This sustained 71% decrease underscores subdued retail participation, casting doubt over the token’s near-term recovery prospects.
Short sellers remain in the driver’s seat. The OI-Weighted Funding Rate has slumped to 0.0019%, pulling back from today’s intraday highs of 0.0050%. This contraction, coupled with the broader market’s risk-off stance, weighs heavily against any sustained upward momentum for LINK above $14.
Charting the Technical Landscape
From a technical standpoint, Chainlink’s defense of the $14 level reflects a tentative bullish posture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has nudged up from 34 to 36, hinting at a gradual, if unconvincing, rebuilding of positive momentum. Nevertheless, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to signal caution with its persistent sell bias since Friday. For sentiment to flip bullish, a decisive crossover of the MACD’s blue line above the signal line will be essential.
Further intensifying the bearish undertones, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) recently crossed beneath the 100-day EMA—forming a Death Cross pattern, a classic warning sign for technical traders. Key inflection levels to monitor include support at $14.00 and $10.98–$12.76, with resistance eyed at $16.85 (site of last week’s bounce), the 50-day EMA, and the psychological threshold of $20.00.
Should LINK lose its $14 footing, the $10.98–$12.76 band may entice value-seeking bids, though conviction appears thin.
Understanding Open Interest and Funding Rates
Open Interest, reflecting the aggregate value of active derivatives contracts, signals investor engagement and capital flows. Higher OI often precedes trend confirmation with enhanced liquidity, while contraction marks widespread liquidation and bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, funding rates function as equilibrium tools for aligning spot and futures prices. Persistently elevated funding rates telegraph bullish positioning, whereas a negative drift flags underlying bearishness and possibly, trend reversals.
Source: CoinGlass / LINK Open Interest
Outlook
Chainlink’s current posture encapsulates the caution pervading the crypto landscape: meaningful technical supports hold, yet conviction remains scarce amid weak retail flows and a prevailing short bias. For a decisive shift, renewed spot market demand and a break in technical resistance will be required. Until then, LINK’s path appears mired in caution—mirroring broader digital asset sentiment as 2025 draws to a close.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should always conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions in cryptocurrencies, which are highly volatile and speculative assets.
You might be interested in
