Ripple’s native token, XRP, is navigating one of its most precarious phases of the past year, caught in the crosscurrents of a risk-averse financial climate and an increasingly fragile market structure. While the digital asset weathered previous storms and continues to trade at a considerably higher price than in late 2024, on-chain data reveals a growing vulnerability: only 58.5% of the circulating XRP supply is currently in profit, an alarming drop to the lowest level not seen since November 2024.
This phenomenon is particularly striking given XRP’s present value—now hovering near $2.15, sharply above last year’s $0.53. Despite such a rally, over 41.5% of XRP tokens are held at a loss, equating to roughly 26.5 billion XRP underwater. The supply distribution paints a picture of a market that is top-heavy, heavily populated by participants who entered during speculative surges, specifically after the ETF announcement and subsequent rallies.
Source: @glassnode on X
The surge in unrealized losses among holders has amplified sell-side momentum, tightening the grip of fear across the marketplace. Recent liquidity shifts—driven by global rate volatility, geopolitical tensions, and a strengthening dollar—have funneled capital out of speculative crypto assets, with XRP’s price action caught at a crucial juncture. Either the token establishes support and absorbs panic-driven selling, or further correction looms.
Technical signals reinforce the precariousness. XRP remains entrenched below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, each curling downward—a textbook indicator of weakening trend structure. Failed attempts to recapture momentum, in particular the unsuccessful test of the 50-day MA in early November, highlight deep-seated distribution as sellers dominate price action during heavy-volume downswings.
Market structure is deteriorating further, as lower highs since September underscore waning bullish conviction. Price bounce attempts from key demand zones are growing weaker, and resistance near the $2.50–$2.60 range remains formidable. Should current support dissolve, the next liquidity pocket sits near $1.70–$1.80, a historical battleground for buyers.
The critical insight from this shifting landscape: speculative flows, rather than long-term conviction, fueled recent price surges. As late entrants absorb losses, liquidation pressure is at risk of spiraling unless robust demand materializes. For fintech observers and institutional players, XRP provides an instructive case study in market dynamics—a reminder of the perils of top-heavy distribution and the latent impact of macroeconomic turbulence on crypto valuations.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should always conduct their own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions in cryptocurrencies, which are highly volatile and speculative assets.
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