The cryptocurrency market is once again drawing parallels to its legendary 2017 run, according to Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision. Pal, a respected voice in macro-finance, highlights that the current Bitcoin cycle is “spookily similar” to what investors witnessed eight years ago, but with some key differences shaped by today’s global economic landscape 2.
A Familiar Pattern, Slower Pace
Back in 2017, Bitcoin started the year at just over $1,000 and soared to more than $14,000 by December—a staggering 1,255% increase. Pal notes that while the current cycle is following a comparable uptrend, the pace may be more measured this time. The reason? A weaker US dollar and shifting macroeconomic conditions are stretching the cycle, potentially pushing its peak into the second quarter of 2026.
Macroeconomic Forces at Play
Pal’s analysis is rooted in his “business cycle score,” a macro model tracking the global economy’s position. With the score still below 50, he suggests the market is in an early growth phase, reminiscent of 2020 rather than the late-stage exuberance of 2021. The US Dollar Index has dropped nearly 9% this year, making Bitcoin more attractive as both a speculative asset and an alternative currency.
“With the dollar breaking down even today, it’s starting to suggest this may go into Q2 2026,” Pal explains, emphasizing the inverse relationship between Bitcoin and the dollar 1.
Institutional Momentum and Global Shifts
A notable difference from 2017 is the growing interest from institutional investors, especially in the Middle East. Pal recently met with several Sovereign Wealth Funds in the region, all of which are bullish on crypto and blockchain. The focus is no longer just on Bitcoin as a reserve asset; governments are exploring blockchain for broader infrastructure, from finance to public services.
Market Volatility: Lessons from the Past
This cycle has already seen multiple sharp corrections—Bitcoin has experienced five major pullbacks, each lasting two to three months, while altcoins have corrected up to 65% 3. Pal advises investors to maintain patience and avoid getting caught up in short-term price swings, echoing the lessons of previous cycles 3.
Regulatory Developments and the Road Ahead
Governments worldwide are moving to regulate digital assets, aiming to protect investors and attract global capital. For example, Pakistan is drafting new regulations to foster a secure and competitive crypto environment.
Key Takeaways for Crypto Investors
• The current Bitcoin cycle mirrors 2017’s pattern but is likely to play out over a longer period due to macroeconomic factors.
• Institutional adoption, especially in regions like the Middle East, is accelerating blockchain integration beyond just digital currencies.
• Investors should focus on long-term trends and avoid reacting to short-term volatility, as history shows cycles are marked by significant corrections before new highs.
For those navigating the crypto market, understanding these macro trends and maintaining a disciplined approach could be the key to capitalizing on the next phase of digital asset growth.
