Ethereum (ETH) is navigating a turbulent period, with its price hovering around $2,420 as of Friday, reflecting a 3% drop for the day. This recent dip comes as global markets react to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which have injected a dose of caution and volatility into the crypto landscape.
Market Dynamics: Selling Pressure Meets Underlying Demand
Over the past week, Ethereum has experienced notable selling pressure, evidenced by four consecutive days of net inflows to exchanges totaling 285,000 ETH. On Friday alone, 72,000 ETH moved onto exchanges—a classic sign that some investors are opting to sell or reposition their holdings. This trend is often interpreted as a bearish signal, especially when compared to the steadier inflows seen in crypto ETFs.
Despite this, Ethereum’s underlying demand remains resilient. Data from CryptoQuant shows that accumulation addresses—wallets with no history of selling—have increased their holdings by a record 5 million ETH since the start of June. Much of this accumulation is believed to be linked to staking, with the total amount of staked ETH reaching a new high of 35,1 million, including over 500,000 ETH added in just the first half of June.
Derivatives and Liquidations: A Volatile Mix
The spot market’s selling pressure has been mirrored in the derivatives market. Ethereum’s futures open interest surged by 720,000 ETH, but this was accompanied by a swift price drop, suggesting that new capital was largely betting against ETH. In the past 24 hours, this dynamic led to $163 million in liquidations, with long positions accounting for the bulk of the losses.
Geopolitical Tensions: The Macro Backdrop
The uncertainty stems largely from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The White House has indicated that a decision on how to respond to Iran will be made within the next two weeks, keeping markets on edge. Historically, such geopolitical events have led to a “panic-then-recover” pattern in crypto, and many investors are watching closely to see if this cycle repeats.
Technical Outlook: Symmetrical Triangle Signals Imminent Move
From a technical perspective, Ethereum is approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle pattern—a formation that often precedes a significant price move. The upper boundary of this triangle is reinforced by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key resistance level since mid-May, while the lower boundary is supported by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
A decisive breakout could see ETH test the $2,850 resistance, while a breakdown might push it toward the 100-day SMA support. Current momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator, are slightly below neutral, hinting at a tilt toward bearish sentiment.
On-Chain Activity and Institutional Moves
Despite the short-term volatility, on-chain activity remains robust. New weekly addresses on the Ethereum network have climbed to between 800,000 and 1 million since mid-May, signaling ongoing user growth. Meanwhile, institutional interest persists: Nasdaq-listed BTCS recently added 1,000 ETH to its treasury, bringing its total holdings to 14,600 ETH.
Looking Ahead: Opportunity in Uncertainty?
While the immediate outlook for Ethereum is clouded by macro uncertainty, the combination of strong accumulation, record staking, and steady network growth suggests that many investors view current price dips as buying opportunities rather than signs of a broader reversal. As always, the next major move will likely depend on how the geopolitical narrative unfolds and whether technical resistance or support levels give way.
