Stellar (XLM) is drawing renewed attention in the crypto markets, with its price stabilizing near $0,242 after a week of notable recovery. Recent derivatives data and technical indicators suggest that XLM could be on the verge of a significant move, as investor sentiment shifts and bullish positions gain momentum.
Market Sentiment Turns Positive
XLM’s funding rates have flipped into positive territory, a key signal that more traders are betting on price increases rather than declines. The long-to-short ratio, now at 1,11—the highest in over a month—reflects this growing optimism. In derivatives markets, a positive funding rate means traders holding long positions are paying those with short positions, typically a sign of bullish sentiment.
XLM long-to-short ratio chart. Source: Coinglass
Technical Levels to Watch
After closing below the $0,253 support last week and experiencing an 11,5% drop, XLM found support and rebounded by 8,6% earlier this week. The price is currently consolidating around $0,241. If Stellar manages to break and close above the $0,253 resistance, analysts see potential for a 12% rally, targeting the previous high near $0,285.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to 40, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. For a sustained rally, the RSI would need to move above 50. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is close to a bullish crossover, which could provide a buy signal if confirmed.
Downside Risks Remain
Should XLM fail to break above resistance, a correction could see the price retest weekly support at $0,225. However, the current market structure and derivatives data suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Broader Context and Forecasts
Looking ahead, various analysts project XLM could trade between $0,258 and $0,394 by the end of 2025, with an average price forecast of $0,316 . Some forecasts are more conservative, expecting XLM to remain in the $0,244–$0,250 range through June and July 2025 . The overall sentiment, however, is cautiously optimistic, with technical and derivatives data supporting the case for a potential breakout.
